The RAFALE deal that has been stuck in limbo for the last three years ever since the last Indian government decided to buy 126 RAFALE jets as part of the MMRCA programme, has reached new developments: Purchasing of 36 Dassault RAFALE aircraft in flyaway’condition in a government-to-government deal, with India being the first to budge from its stance of focusing primarily on technology transfer as part of the deal. Pegged at U$4.25 billion, the first of the 36 aircraft will be delivered to the Indian Air Force (IAF) in 2017 with various design and pricing issues needed to be worked out in the interim. So the question that begs is why Indian Prime Minister Modi veered away from the Make in India campaign that he has been propagating with great fervour ever since his party came to power?
One of the main reasons is the current combat capabilities of the IAF which are critically deficient in light of China’s and Pakistan’s collaboration on the JF-17 fighter aircraft, in addition to the former set to supply the latter with the J-31 aircraft in the not so distant future. China’s military has grown rapidly over the last few years, with Beijing ramping up its production of fighter aircraft in collaboration with Russia. Further, its deep pockets and a near absence of programme delays brought on by bureaucratic lethargy, have given the country a rather glaring edge over India. This is particularly a matter of grave concern as any conflict with China would primarily hinge on air power, and, going by its current combat capabilities which consists of 34 squadrons (several of which need to be phased out) against a need of 42, India quite simply lags behind.
Secondly, Modi did not have the option of scrapping the whole deal and issuing a fresh bidding process as this would have led to significant penalties that the country just cannot afford especially at a time when it is struggling to come up with the money to fund all capital procurement. Thirdly, the PM can ill afford another failed defence procurement deal at a time when the general public opinion, deeply influenced by many such past examples, is finally enjoying a positive uptick due to a newly found political will. Lastly, this out of the box solution which did away with the usual bureaucratic approval can be viewed as one that will help push other agendas such as civil nuclear cooperation, space agreements and infrastructure development as well. In fact an immediate positive impact was felt with the French President Francois Hollande announcing an investment of $2.1 billion in various Indian sectors just a day after the deal was announced. Therefore, looking at the circumstances, this procurement can be viewed as one that has given the IAF the much needed breathing space while keeping other options open.
These are the possible future courses of action: Su-30MKI (advanced version), Mig-35, and Eurofighter TYPHOON (read article here)
The deal to procure only 36 RAFALE aircraft as opposed to the original 126 can be viewed as a blessing in disguise. It is now likely to free up funds that can partly be used for scaling up production of the TEJAS Light Combat Aircraft and the faster induction of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) in collaboration with Russia. In order to make the situation clearer, it is important to see what would have happened in case the RAFALE deal had indeed gone through. India would have had a fleet of fourth generation fighters, delivered within the next 8-10 years, a time when fifth generation aircraft are likely to become the norm. So in essence India would have spent over $25 billion on a fleet of aircraft, which would pretty much have been obsolete when made fully operational. If it is technology transfer India is worried about, it can import cutting edge aviation technology from the US or the European countries, which are facing troubled times due to market saturation and the after effects of the financial meltdown. The time is ripe for large defence importers such as India to exercise their financial might and aim to get assembly lines set up in the country, especially with a keen interest being shown by private companies such as Tata Motors, Reliance, Mahindra, and L&T. All in all, the imminent termination of the RAFALE deal sends out the right message to the military, the bureaucracy and foreign companies looking to take advantage of the corruption ingrained in the Indian system for long. The Narendra Modi led government is determined to make a fresh start and root out corruption and lethargy in a country that had gotten too comfortable and complacent.
One of the main reasons is the current combat capabilities of the IAF which are critically deficient in light of China’s and Pakistan’s collaboration on the JF-17 fighter aircraft, in addition to the former set to supply the latter with the J-31 aircraft in the not so distant future. China’s military has grown rapidly over the last few years, with Beijing ramping up its production of fighter aircraft in collaboration with Russia. Further, its deep pockets and a near absence of programme delays brought on by bureaucratic lethargy, have given the country a rather glaring edge over India. This is particularly a matter of grave concern as any conflict with China would primarily hinge on air power, and, going by its current combat capabilities which consists of 34 squadrons (several of which need to be phased out) against a need of 42, India quite simply lags behind.
Secondly, Modi did not have the option of scrapping the whole deal and issuing a fresh bidding process as this would have led to significant penalties that the country just cannot afford especially at a time when it is struggling to come up with the money to fund all capital procurement. Thirdly, the PM can ill afford another failed defence procurement deal at a time when the general public opinion, deeply influenced by many such past examples, is finally enjoying a positive uptick due to a newly found political will. Lastly, this out of the box solution which did away with the usual bureaucratic approval can be viewed as one that will help push other agendas such as civil nuclear cooperation, space agreements and infrastructure development as well. In fact an immediate positive impact was felt with the French President Francois Hollande announcing an investment of $2.1 billion in various Indian sectors just a day after the deal was announced. Therefore, looking at the circumstances, this procurement can be viewed as one that has given the IAF the much needed breathing space while keeping other options open.
These are the possible future courses of action: Su-30MKI (advanced version), Mig-35, and Eurofighter TYPHOON (read article here)
The deal to procure only 36 RAFALE aircraft as opposed to the original 126 can be viewed as a blessing in disguise. It is now likely to free up funds that can partly be used for scaling up production of the TEJAS Light Combat Aircraft and the faster induction of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) in collaboration with Russia. In order to make the situation clearer, it is important to see what would have happened in case the RAFALE deal had indeed gone through. India would have had a fleet of fourth generation fighters, delivered within the next 8-10 years, a time when fifth generation aircraft are likely to become the norm. So in essence India would have spent over $25 billion on a fleet of aircraft, which would pretty much have been obsolete when made fully operational. If it is technology transfer India is worried about, it can import cutting edge aviation technology from the US or the European countries, which are facing troubled times due to market saturation and the after effects of the financial meltdown. The time is ripe for large defence importers such as India to exercise their financial might and aim to get assembly lines set up in the country, especially with a keen interest being shown by private companies such as Tata Motors, Reliance, Mahindra, and L&T. All in all, the imminent termination of the RAFALE deal sends out the right message to the military, the bureaucracy and foreign companies looking to take advantage of the corruption ingrained in the Indian system for long. The Narendra Modi led government is determined to make a fresh start and root out corruption and lethargy in a country that had gotten too comfortable and complacent.